probability

Runner-runner outs

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Poker

Some outs for a hand require drawing an out on both the turn and the river—making two consecutive outs is called a runner-runner. Examples would be needing two cards to make a straight, flush, or three or four of a kind. Runner-runner outs can either draw from a common set of outs or from disjoint sets of outs. Two disjoint outs can either be conditional or independent events.

Common outs

Drawing to a flush is an example of drawing from a common set of outs. Both the turn and river need to be the same suit, so both outs are coming from a common set of outs—the set of remaining cards of the desired suit. After the flop, if x is the number of common outs, the probability P of drawing runner-runner outs is

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Flopping overcards when holding a pocket pair

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Pocket pairIt is useful to look at the chances different starting hands have of either improving on the flop, or of weakening on the flop. One interesting circumstance concerns pocket pairs. When holding a pocket pair, overcards (cards of higher rank than the pair) weaken the hand because of the potential that an overcard has paired a card in an opponent's hand. The hand gets worse the more overcards there are on the board and the more opponents that are in the hand because the probability that one of the overcards has paired a hole card increases.

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Probability for the flop

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The value of a starting hand can change dramatically after the flop. Regardless of initial strength, any hand can flop the nuts—for example, if the flop comes with three 2s, any hand holding the fourth 2 has the nuts. Conversely, the flop can undermine the perceived strength of any hand—A♣ A♥ would not be happy to see 8♠ 9♠ 10♠ on the flop because of the straight and flush possibilities.

There are

(50/3) = 19,600

possible flops for any given starting hand. By the turn the total number of combinations has increased to

(50/4) = 230,300

and on the river there are

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Hands with one ace

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Ace of club

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Pocket pairs

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One pair of eight

Barring a miracle straight or flush, a pocket pair needs to make three of a kind to beat a higher pocket pair.

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Card counting in blackjack

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Blackjack board

Card counting is a card game strategy used to determine when a player has a probability advantage. The term is used almost exclusively to refer to the tracking of the ratio of high cards to low cards in blackjack, although theoretically card counting can be used in some other card games.

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The probability of starting hands in Texas hold 'em

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The probability of being dealt various starting hands can be explicitly calculated. In Texas Hold 'em, a player is dealt two down (or hole) cards. The first card can be any one of 52 playing cards in the deck and the second card can be any one of the 51 remaining cards. This gives 52 × 51 ÷ 2 = 1,326 possible starting hand combinations. (Since the order of the cards is not significant, the 2,652 combinations are divided by the 2 ways of ordering two cards.) Alternately, the number of possible starting hands is represented as the binomial coefficient

(52/2) = 1,326

which is the number of possible combinations of choosing 2 cards from a deck of 52 playing cards.

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Texas hold 'em probability

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Ace of Heart

In poker, the probability of many events can be determined by direct calculation. This article discusses how to compute the probabilities for many commonly occurring events in the game of Texas hold 'em and provides some probabilities and odds[1] for specific situations. In most cases, the probabilities and odds are approximations due to rounding.

When calculating probabilities for a card game such as Texas Hold 'em, there are two basic approaches.

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Probability of winning at lottery

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DOOM Lottery Machine

The chances of winning a lottery jackpot are principally determined by several factors: the count of possible numbers, the count of winning numbers drawn, whether or not order is significant and whether drawn numbers are returned for the possibility of further drawing.

In a typical 6 from 49 lotto, 6 numbers are drawn from 49 and if the 6 numbers on a ticket match the numbers drawn, the ticket holder is a jackpot winner - this is true regardless of the order in which the numbers are drawn. The odds of being a jackpot winner are approximately 1 in 14 million (13,983,816 to be exact).

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Boxcars

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Stone Dice

Boxcars is the outcome of rolling the dice in a game of craps and getting a 6 on each die. The pair of 6 pips resembles a pair of box cars on a freight train. In modern parlance, it refers to such a roll in any game involving 6 sided dice which are marked with pips. The probability of this roll is 1 in 36, or about 2.8%. One of the 4 bets on any common craps table. It is on the 'high side' of the horn bet in which the player can either bet on the 2,3,11, or 12. When the player throws in money and calls out "midnight" or "Boxcars", the dealer will usually 'book' the bet as a bet on the 12, so as to not create confusion.

Also called Midnight.

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